Should We Expect a Nuclear Renaissance in Africa?

As the world edges closer to 2050, global electricity demand is expected to surge by 75%, driven by rapid technological advancements and explosive population growth. Nowhere is this dynamic more pressing than in Africa, where the population is projected to reach an astounding 2.5 billion. With energy needs growing at an unprecedented rate, nuclear power is emerging as a potential cornerstone of the continent’s energy future.

Africa’s nuclear energy story currently revolves around a single operational facility: the Koeberg Nuclear Power Station, located just outside of Cape Town, South Africa. Constructed during the 1970s and 1980s by the French consortium Framatome and Alstom, Koeberg’s two reactors remain vital to South Africa’s energy mix. Recently granted an operational extension until 2044, the plant serves as both a symbol of what nuclear power can achieve and a reminder of the challenges involved in sustaining it.

Globally, 440 nuclear reactors in 32 countries demonstrate the potential of this energy source. The United States leads with 94 reactors, followed by China (58), France (57), and Russia (36). These nuclear powerhouses not only meet their own domestic energy needs but are also exporting their expertise and technology to African nations.

I have traveled across the continent for over a decade as a Senior Research Associate at the Institute for Global Dialogue at the University of South Africa. During this time, I have observed how global powers like Russia and China have significantly increased their involvement in Africa’s nuclear sector, particularly in uranium mining. This intensifying interest is reshaping the continent’s energy aspirations.

Key developments are taking shape in countries like Egypt and Ghana, which are actively engaging with international nuclear leaders. Russia, through its state-owned nuclear corporation Rosatom, dominates the global market for nuclear construction, holding a staggering 70% share. It is financing and building Egypt’s El Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant on the Mediterranean coast. With a price tag of $28.75 billion, the project includes four VVER-1200 reactors and marks a major milestone for Africa. Construction on El Dabaa began in March 2024, with the first stage scheduled for completion by 2028.

Meanwhile, Ghana is charting a distinct path by embracing U.S. innovation. In August 2024, Ghana awarded its first nuclear power plant contract to NuScale Power, an American company specializing in small modular reactors (SMRs). This project represents Africa’s introduction to advanced light-water SMR technology, which offers cost-effective and flexible solutions tailored to the continent’s diverse energy needs, including powering remote and smaller-scale operations.

The interest in nuclear energy extends far beyond Egypt and Ghana. Uganda, for instance, has announced a series of ambitious plans. In 2019, it signed a nuclear cooperation agreement with Russia, and by 2023, it was working with China to generate 1,000 MW of nuclear energy by 2031. However, Uganda’s strategy shifted in August 2023 when President Yoweri Museveni enlisted Russia and South Korea to construct two nuclear power stations capable of generating over 15,000 MW. By November, Uganda was negotiating with Russia to move forward with these plans, highlighting the competitive race among global nuclear powers to secure a foothold in Africa.

This pattern of partnerships and announcements is not unique to Uganda. Zimbabwe recently signed an agreement with Russia to develop small nuclear reactors, while Burkina Faso, Mali, and South Africa have also signed deals for nuclear energy development. Across the continent, countries are actively pursuing nuclear power, spurred by promises of economic development and the prospect of energy independence. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has played a critical role, offering legal and technical assistance to countries like Kenya and Uganda while supporting the expansion of nuclear education programs in African universities to cultivate a new generation of scientists and engineers.

However, the financial obstacles to nuclear energy adoption remain immense. Consider Rwanda: the country’s annual budget is $4.3 billion, and its GDP is roughly $14 billion, a fraction of the $29 billion required to construct a nuclear plant the size of Egypt’s El Dabaa. This underscores the daunting economic realities of embracing nuclear energy. For many African nations, traditional nuclear reactors may seem out of reach.

This is where SMRs could revolutionize Africa’s energy landscape. Scalable and less capital-intensive, SMRs are tailored to meet the unique energy needs of African countries, which often face challenges due to geography and population distribution. These advanced reactors can power industrial sites, remote communities, and even AI data centers, providing a level of adaptability that traditional nuclear technology cannot match.

Africa’s significant uranium reserves—concentrated in countries like Niger, South Africa, and Namibia—offer another layer of opportunity. These resources position the continent as a key player in the global nuclear supply chain. Yet, despite these advantages, substantial barriers remain. High costs, lengthy construction timelines, and the need for extensive human resources and technical expertise present formidable challenges.

In some cases, nuclear energy may not be the most practical or immediate solution for African nations, particularly those with limited financial resources or pressing short-term energy needs. Nonetheless, the narrative around nuclear power in Africa has evolved significantly over the past decade. What was once considered an unattainable luxury is now considered a viable option for sustainable development, bolstered by international partnerships and technological advancements.

The future of nuclear energy in Africa remains uncertain, but its potential is undeniable. As the continent grapples with the twin challenges of economic growth and environmental sustainability, nuclear power offers a tantalizing prospect. Whether this potential is fully realized will depend on Africa’s ability to navigate the complex interplay of ambition, economics, and global geopolitics in the decades ahead.